A | Professor David Woodard, Clemson University political scientist and former political consultant for Republican congressmen, believes that an early bid by Donald Trump could be "a disaster.",Sputnik: What are the pros and cons of starting the race in the middle of the highly publicized January 6 panel hearings?,Woodard: In my opinion Trump is not starting his race in the middle of the hearings. He is waiting and will file for office later. He likes the spotlight, but this time the hearings only hurt him. The Democrats know they are facing the apocalypse in the midterm elections this year, so they are playing the only tune they can - Trump is bad. They are hopeful of discrediting Trump before the midterm elections. I think the tactic is good: Trump has two impeachments against him and a riot on election day - those are not good recommendations for someone to run for office.,Trump Reportedly Mulls Making 2024 Presidential Bid as Early as July While Aides & Allies Divided2 July, 12:34 GMT,Sputnik: What legal and political consequences do you expect from the congressional hearings into the Capitol riot, especially given Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony last week?,Woodard: I think Cassidy Hutchinson will be discredited, but her testimony has been successful in raising questions Republicans, not just Democrats, have about Trump. Even if she can't prove that Trump "lunged for the wheel" in the limo, the behavior described fits his former president's personality. I think the GOP regulars are looking for a new leader and this hearing serves to discredit Trump even in his denial.,I think the hearings will be criticized by the Republican - about to be majority - in Congress. If Liz Cheney loses, then the hearings will be discredited. If Liz Cheney wins her race, (that is possible, but not probable) then the Trump people are in trouble because her victory shows that the GOP is independent of Trump appeals. That's big news.,Sputnik: Some Republicans are urging Trump to postpone his campaigning until after the midterms, arguing that he might prove a distraction from the party's message. How would an early bid affect the upcoming midterms results?,Woodard: An early bid by Trump could be a disaster. It is like the American space program, the early launch of a rocket means it could tumble back to earth. Trump is fully capable of a mistimed beginning, this isn't 2016 anymore. Timing is important in politics, and the Trump election was perfectly timed opposite Hillary Clinton. That isn't the case anymore, he's overstayed his time on the stage, and Republicans are ready to change to a new voice.,Trump Could Preempt ‘Bogus Findings’ of January 6 Hearing by Announcing 2024 Bid Early, Pundit SaysYesterday, 15:29 GMT,Sputnik: Trump would enter the race with an approval rating among Republicans of around 80 percent. Would an early bid help Trump to reassert himself as the head of the party and cause voters to rally behind him?,Woodard: Remember this about approval ratings (the 80% for Trump): They don't transfer into votes. Yes, Republicans remember Trump, but they also remember Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan - that doesn't mean they think those people from the past are the best choice in the present. Trump can only re-assert his leadership if he trashes his opponents in early presidential primaries...until then, everything about Trump is pure speculation. I believe that Trump - like Barry Goldwater, Ross Perot, and Richard Nixon - is past history. He can't revive himself after he is so well-known, and with his reputation he has a real problem looking good.,Sputnik: Who are his main rivals inside the party and how do you rate their chances?,Woodard: Obviously, the main voice of the future is Ron DeSantis in Florida. He's a governor and he has a regular voice opposite Biden. Tom Cotton from Arkansas is a solid, conservative voice but he isn't a startling, bright personality. Rick Scott is another Florida personality, but I think he is behind DeSantis. Nikki Haley from SC is a much smaller light than other members of the field, but she might make a good VP. Ted Cruz from Texas is too rough a personality after Trump, people like - they don't love - Cruz.,© AP Photo / Wilfredo LeeFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis listens during a news conference, Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2021, near the Shark Valley Visitor Center in MiamiFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis listens during a news conference, Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2021, near the Shark Valley Visitor Center in Miami© AP Photo / Wilfredo Lee,Mike Pence is strengthened by the congressional hearings because he is shown to be an honest man. His problem is that he doesn't have a platform to address the audience. I think Trump will be shown to be a bag of wind, something Americans don't want in the presidential office again.。
B | 中新社北京8月26日电 (记者 黄钰钦)8月25日，由中共中央对外联络部和美国亚洲协会共同主办的第三届中美1.5轨对话在北京举行。
C | 来自中方有关部门、地方政府、智库、高校以及美国亚洲协会等方面的约40名代表，围绕“建设性战略稳定——新时代中美务实合作”进行交流。 所谓一轨，通常指国家政府之间的正式外交沟通，由现任政府官员代表国家进行谈判和磋商，有明确的官方属性。
D | 二轨则更多是非官方交流，参与者多是智库学者、前政要、企业人士等，不代表政府进行正式谈判，但能够在相对宽松的环境中交换观点，为政策制定提供参考。
E | 两者之间的1.5轨，是介于官方正式外交和民间对话之间的沟通，参与者既包括政府部门等方面人士，也包括智库、学界、工商界等人士。 “1.5轨最大的特点，是在官方和民间之间搭起一座特殊桥梁。”中国人民大学全球治理与发展研究院高级研究员苏浩指出，它既能够接触政策层面的现实问题，又能保留较灵活的讨论空间。 这种机制并非中美间独有。早在2015年，中韩双方就举行了第一次1.5轨对话，旨在加强两国政府和二轨对话间的对接。
F | 中美1.5轨对话，同样与中美关系需要保持沟通的大背景密切相关。2023年，首届中美1.5轨对话以视频方式举行。2024年，第二届对话在北京举行，讨论议题进一步延伸至经贸、气候变化、卫生、人工智能、人文交流等领域。 从三届对话来看，这一机制的功能不断拓展。本届对话共设置增进中美政治互信，拓展中美经贸合作，探索中美人工智能与科技、国际地区事务合作，促进中美医疗合作与人文交流等四个议题。
G | “这说明1.5轨对话正在从‘保持沟通’走向‘寻找合作’。”苏浩说，三届对话最重要的成果，未必是形成多少具体文件，而是逐步形成可以持续运转的沟通平台，让双方不同领域人士保持接触，把现实问题和合作设想带到桌面上讨论。
H | 中美关系正处于重要节点。今年5月中美元首历史性会晤确立了中美建设性战略稳定关系的新定位，为未来3年乃至更长时间的中美关系作出战略指引。
I | “中美关系越是复杂，越需要保持多层次、多领域沟通。
J | ”苏浩认为，“1.5轨能够做的，就是把分歧讲清楚，把可以合作的事情找出来，通过持续交流减少误判。” 一个稳定的中美关系需要元首外交引领，也需要政府部门间的专业沟通，还需要智库、企业、学界等社会各界保持接触。三届中美1.5轨对话的举行，正是这种多层次的体现，为中美管控分歧、增进理解、寻找合作创造更多可能。
K | (完) 【编辑:曹子健】。
L |
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